Read Tom Eblen's Column about Facebook

Longtime Lexington Herald managing editor Tom Eblen made a recent move into column writing. It is really, really good. His insights are absolutely stunning.

When Tom told me that he was going to be a columnist, I can't say that I jumped with enthusiasm. I had never seen his writing. I appreciated his low key humor when we appeared together on Comment on Kentucky but didn't know how that would translate to print.

It translates well.

Tom s not afraid to embrace new technologies or new ideas. He has a blog, uses video and I receive the column from his RSS feed. In an age when many columnist gravitate to polarization, Tom allows for both sides of an argument to have their say.

Tom and I are the same age and he was one of my first Facebook friends born before the Reagan presidency. We both immediately realized that Facebook was an important communications tool and not a college fad.

Tom's thoughts about Facebook are something I wish I had written and concur with completely.

Tom Eblen's Thoughts About Facebook

Tiana Ann McNay

On April 21 Tiana Ann McNay entered the world. She is the daughter of my nephew Nick McNay. Her name is deratative of her mother Tina and her late grandmother, Theresa Ann McNay.

Nick has completed his second year at Eastern Kentucky University and I am very proud of him.

You can see Tiana's picture and read about her by clicking on the following link:

Tiana McNay Picture & Stats

What Big Name Kentuckians are Reading and Listening to

What Big Name Kentuckians are Reading and Listening to

It's going by the book

-Johnny Cash

John Eckberg asked in his book, The Success Effect, what book business leaders had by their bedside and what music they were listening to.

I posed the questions to a number of well known Kentuckians.

(You can get the complete list of responses at Big Name Kentuckians)

A clue to personality is how they responded to the question.

Judge Bill Clouse (Madison and Clark Counties) selected books that reflected his passion for history and law. I was impressed by how he answered.

He responded well before my deadline. He neatly organized the list of books and directed where I could find more information on each.

If you ever show up in Judge Clouse's courtroom, you had better be on time and you had better be prepared.

Peter Perlman, former president of the American Trial Lawyers Association (ATLA), would impress Judge Clouse. They were both reading John Grisham's latest book, The Agenda.

The most popular book was Right of the Dial: The Rise of Clear Channel and the Fall of Commercial Radio by Alec Foege. Joe Elliott at WHAS-84 in Louisville, Tom Leach, the voice of the University of Kentucky Wildcats, and myself are reading that new release.

Tom and I had almost identical picks expect Tom has Earth Wind and Fire's greatest hits. They won't make my list. A band member kept trying to pick up my date during a concert. It's been almost 30 years but I still hold a grudge.

Bill Goodman, host of Kentucky Tonight and several other shows on KET, and Tom Leach were both listening to Allison Krauss. Goodman joins state representative Joni Jenkins from Louisville as Bruce Springsteen fans. Bob Dylan is on state representative Kathy Stein's playlist and frequently mentioned on others.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and Louisville attorney Bonita Black are both Harvard educated (Bonita was Kentucky undergrad and Harvard Law School, Trey was the opposite) and have heavy books on their reading list. However music is controlled by their children.

Bonita is listening to Dora the Explorer while Trey is serenaded by Hanna Montana, Enchanted Soundtrack and High School Musical 2 Soundtrack.

When Trey seeks another office, he is a cinch to get the Disney lover's vote.

Mary Jo Perino, sports anchor at WLEX TV, says her life is dominated by her two year old son. Her lead book was Curious George and music by Giggly Wiggly Rhymes.

Sports books were popular. WTVQ news anchor Don Hudson is reading Pistol Pete, a biography of Pete Maravich. Leach is reading Sound and Fury(about Ali and Cosell) by Dave Kindred.

Re-reading classics is a popular activity. Lexington Vice Mayor Jim Gray was re-reading John Adams and Anna Karenina and Joni Jenkins was re-reading Truman.

Inspiration books were on many lists. Don Hudson was reading When Times are Tough by John Bytheway. Bonita Black read In the Grip of Grace and Facing Your Giants, both by Max Lucado. (She also was reading my book.) Joni Jenkins was reading Eat, Pray, Love.

Joe Elliot touted Crashing Through: A True Story of Risk, Adventure, and the Man Who Dared to Seeby Robert Kurson.

Joe had Kurson on his radio program and Bill Goodman is also boning up for an interview. He is reading Hezbollah by Richard Norton. Norton, a noted Boston University professor, will be a guest on Bill's One to One show.

Goodman, Stein and Judge Clouse had excellent books for Kentuckians. Goodman was reading Kentucky's Everyday Heroes by Steve Flarity. It profiles the lives of 40 lesser known Kentuckians. (I read it after Bill's recommendation and it is an excellent book.) Stein took a break from Michael Moore and Bill Bradley to read Secrets of a Kentucky Gardener by Karen Angelucci. Judge Clouse is a big fan of The Admirable Trumpeter: A Biography of General James Wilkinson by Thomas Robson Hay and M.R. Werner.

Wide ranging taste was a common denominator. Although classic rock dominated the list, many selections were all over the map. Typical was Mary Jo Perino who along with Giggly Wiggly Rhymes goes for Kid Rock, James Taylor and a guy on American Idol.

Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group and the author of Son of Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers and What To Do When You Win the Lottery. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com and read all of the well known Kentuckian's selections at www.donmcnay.com

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When to take a severance package

When to take a severance package

In the end there is once dance you’ll do alone

-Jackson Browne

In 1991, the IBM plant in Lexington, Ky. became Lexmark. IBM offered employee severance packages. People could take the package or take a chance that Lexmark would keep them on.

Several IBM employees came to me for advice. Some took the package and others did not. After seeing that, I concluded that taking a package is an individual decision. There are no set guidelines.

Many of the IBM employees were engineers or had heavy statistical backgrounds. They wanted an answer they could quantify. They sought me to calculate the present value of their package.

After 30 seconds crunching the numbers, I asked the essential question: What are you doing to do with the rest of your life?

Some had well thought out plans. They wanted to do charity work or start a second career. Others didn’t. Working at IBM was not just a job, it was a lifestyle. They had never thought about life outside the corporation.

IBM employees were like a large family. They had generous benefits and perks. Most socialized with other IBM employees. Once someone started at IBM, they generally stayed for life.

The idea of leaving IBM was painful.

Companies offering severance packages are generally established companies who sold the concept of lifetime employment concept. They are not places that fire employees without warning.

I’ve found that people leaving old line companies, even with a severance package, were more bitter than those where companies treated employees like interchangeable parts.

If you work at a company with high employee turnover, getting fired is not a total surprise. People at a company like IBM or Ford never thought about working somewhere else.

There are people who are married to their jobs. They don’t have hobbies or outside interests. Those are people who need to forget about a severance package and stay put.

An engineer who came to my office with many boxes of data (that he brought on a dolly). He had spent hours trying to quantify his decision. Before I went through his boxes, I asked some questions .

Did he like his job? Yes. Did they want him at the new company? Yes. Would he enjoy retirement? No. Could he find a similar job? Not in this part of the country. Was moving an option? No.

I told him to skip the number crunching. . He needed to stay where he was. He was stunned. He kept wanting me to look at his boxes.

I wouldn’t look at his data. I told him it was irrelevant. After a while, my words sunk in.

He worked happily for another decade.

Economic decisions shouldn’t be ignored. Some severance packages are lucrative and offered on a one time basis. Financial considerations are one part of the package, not the whole package.

The health of the company and industry are important factors to consider.

I’ve seen people pass up a buyout and have their company go down a few years later. People often think their own industry is healthier than it is. It is good to get an objective opinion.

When auto workers were offered retirement incentives, I told most workers to take them. The older workers could guarantee health insurance and retirement income. The younger workers could maintain their lifestyle while they trained in another industry.

There are economic factors I look for in a plan. First is lifetime income. It’s easier to leave if your lifetime income is secured. A second factor is health insurance. Larger companies have better benefits than what people can get on their own, especially if people have complicated medical conditions.

There have been calls for universal health care but I wouldn’t factor that into the decision. Don’t make assessments based on things that may or may not happen.

I warn people getting lump sum packages not to make any sudden or stupid financial decisions. When severance plans are offered, I see hucksters come running, pitching everything from financial products to fast food franchises.

The best advice is to take a deep breath.

Talk, really talk, with your family, your bosses, your co-workers and the stakeholders in your decision. Get some outside and impartial advice. Make a decision based on information and logic, not on fear or emotion.

It’s one of the most important decisions of your life. Even with good information, it is a decision you will ultimately make alone.

Don McNay, CLU, ChFC, MSFS, CSSC is Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Ky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com

How to Pick a Kentucky Derby Winner

How to Pick a Kentucky Derby Winner

When your sitting back
In your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day

-Rolling Stones

As the son of a son of a gambler, people ask me for betting advice.

Although I started going to race track before I was able to walk, I don’t know that much about the horse industry. I go the track a few times a year and bet small amounts.

Most of my equine knowledge was gleamed when I worked on the clean up crew at the Kentucky Horse Park. I can tell you what horses make the biggest mess.

Although there are people more qualified to give Derby tips, like political or financial commentators, I won’t let lack of expertise stop me.

I came to the conclusion in the mid 1980’s that I wanted to live my life in Kentucky, I needed to know how to bet on horses.

I found a book called Racetrack Betting: The Professors' Guide to Strategies by Peter Asch and Richard E. Quandi.

It was written by two statistics professors and not the easiest book to read. I can sum up the advice in two statements.

1. Bet on the horse that everyone else is betting on. 2. Bet on the horse to show, not to win or place.

The book bases the ability to pick horses on a theory known as the wisdom of crowds.

The wisdom of crowds concept is really popular now. It is a driving force for web sites like Google.

The idea is that marketplace will move towards the best outcome.

If a horse moves from 10 to 1 to 2 to 1, it is probably a good horse to bet on.

Betting to show is a practice that I follow religiously. .

The professors said that betting to show will produce a winner 52% of the time. That is better than any other kind of bet.

The professors hate jackpots like the Pick-6. Just like the lottery, big odds draw a lot of excitement and attention.

Just like the lottery, you don’t see many people winning them.

The professors frown on exactas, daily doubles or any bet that exhibits large risk.

Like in the investment world, the winner at race track is the person with a conservative style and discipline.

When I go to the track, I don’t look at the racing form, jockeys, past history or pick horses with funny names. (My mother was a sucker for horses with funny names.) I just follow the odds.

I usually win enough money to pay for lunch.

My father, a professional gambler, absolutely HATED my betting system. He and I would go to Keeneland every session and we never picked the same horse. He would bet $100 on a horse and lose. I would bet $10 and win.

It drove him absolutely crazy.

Dad liked the excitement of big odds and big payoffs. He knew everything about the horse’s past performance, their breeding and who was riding them.

Dad was superstitious and started to believe that my system was jinxing him. If dad ever met the professors, he would have punched them in the nose.

I stuck to my system. I stick to it today. Betting to show fits with my overall philosophy about investing. Slow and steady works in the financial markets and works at the track too.

For whatever reason, my system has failed me at Kentucky Derby’s. The last one I remember winning was Sunday Silence in 1989. I didn’t pick Sunday Silence because of my system. His owner, Arthur Hancock III, had graduated from Vanderbilt and I had received a Masters Degree from Vandy the year before.

I picked the horse because of an alumni connection to a man I had never met. It was a stupid reason for picking a horse but produced one of my few winners.

Thus, on Derby Day, my advice is forget all the high powered systems and give it your best guess.

Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers and What To Do When You Win The Lottery. He is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com

The Amazing Al Smith

The Amazing Al Smith

“It’s amazing. With the blink of an eye you finally see the light.

-Aerosmith

Legendary Kentuckian Al Smith came to visit me last week.

For a guy who is supposedly retired, Al stays awfully busy.

After retiring in November from a 33 year run as host of Comment on Kentucky, Al spent the winter in Florida. He is working on his autobiography and promoting causes he believes in.

Al is Chairman of the Advisory Board for Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues. Is it an outstanding program, based at the University of Kentucky, and Al’s been beating the bushes to help the program get money and recognition.

During a long dinner, Al mentioned that every minute of his upcoming week was completely booked. Every breakfast, lunch and dinner. He is going almost 24 hours a day.

I wanted to tell him how busy I’ve been but my 81 year old mentor didn’t want to hear it.

The Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence is celebrating its 25 anniversary by creating the Al Smith Fund for Education. Al is helping to kick that off.

Al goes through life at warp speed but it wasn’t always that way.

He fought a severe battle with alcohol in the early part of his life. He lost numerous jobs in New Orleans and wound up in Russellville, Ky. There he stopped drinking, bought the paper he was writing for, bought some other papers and ascended into greatness.

Al didn’t subscribe to the “dog eats dog” business model. He made to the top by constantly helping others. His demons were replaced by angels.

People battle different demons. I’ve never been big on drinking but I fight compulsive eating. I started a weight loss group in Richmond, and we have had tremendous success.

A group can help an individual see the light.

The theme of the movie It’s a Wonderful Life is that one person can have an impact on those around them.

Everyone needs positive affirmation but those who battle addictions need it the worst. They need to know that they add value to the world.

There is nothing worse than seeing a friend or loved one in the grips of a demon like drugs or alcohol. They feel helpless, and you feel helpless. You want them to “snap out of it.”

Recovery is a process that people have to do for themselves. Something has to guide them to the light.

I turn to Al when I need sage advice. As a man who has seen life’s ups and downs, he has a perspective that commands my respect.

He has not walked my walk, but he certainly knows the neighborhood.

In one of my first conversations with Al, I asked him how he stopped drinking. It was a personal question but I suspected Al wanted to talk about it.

He did. His openness and honesty keeps the demons away. His spirit of candor and compassion is the personality that captivated television audiences for 33 years.

Al has had tremendous success in journalism and business, but what makes him happiest is pushing other people along.

People constantly tell me how Al played a pivotal role in their lives. I hear from the rich and powerful and those who aren’t. He has touched so many people in the journalism business that I stopped counting.

Al is like Clarence the Angel in It’s a Wonderful Life. Clarence got his wings by helping George Bailey (Jimmy Stewart’s character) recognize his worth.

Al helps people discover talents that they didn’t know they had.

Bailey had done much for his community, but he needed Clarence to point that out to him.

People battling demons need a Clarence in their lives. It might come from a group or another person. I’ve seen people inspired by public figures.

Al makes an impact in a public and private manner. His energy is fed by the knowledge that he is making a big difference.

It’s amazing.

Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Ky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com. McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers & What to Do When You Win The Lottery.

Books on the Nightstand, music on the CD

I wrote a column about John Eckberg's book The Success Effect

John asked a number of business trailblazers what books they had on their nightstand and what CD's they had in their CD changer.

I have not purchased a CD in a long time but always stay close to my IPOD and found that every music video imaginable is on You Tube.

My music list is

1. Dirt Off Your Shoulder- Jay-Z (Check out the Obama video spoof that goes with it.)

2 . Kids in America-Kim Wilde (an early MTV classic.)

3. Little Liar-Joan Jett (I'm big on Joan Jett. She might be on the list every week.)

4. The Weather is Here, I Wish You Were Beautiful-Jimmy Buffett (The song currently on my MySpace page.)

5. How Much Tequila Did I Drink Last Night- Steve Goodman.

Tequila came to mind when my friend and Chicago native Larry Niemi was elected to the Board of the National Structured Settlement Trade Association. Goodman was an incredible songwriter (and high school classmate of Hillary Clinton) who died of cancer at a young age. One of his last songs was a Dying Cub Fan's Last Request.

Books on my nightstand (the last five books I have read)

1. Right of the Dial: The Rise of Clear Channel and the Fall of Commercial Radio

2. Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

3. Eddie and the Cruisers by P.F. Kluge

4. Hats & Eyeglasses: A Family Love Affair with Gambling by Martha Frankel

5. Troublemaker: A Personal History of School Reform since Sputnik by Chester (Checker) Finn Jr.

Unlike Donald Trump, I have read every word of every book and with Eddie and the Cruisers, I own the movie too.