Saturday, October 11, 2008

Expect a Manic Monday

Expect a Manic Monday

“Just another manic Monday”

-Prince (The Bangles)

In A Piece of the Action, Joe Nocera’s classic history of personal finance, Joe cited a mutual fund manager who noted an interesting fact.

If you added up all the Monday’s between 1955 and 1985, the stock market dropped 1500 points. It did fine the other four days of the week.

That makes sense. People have the weekend to read the papers, talk to their neighbors and get negative and fearful. They walk in on Monday morning and sell.

It is the classic example of how emotion trumps reason.

I was in the financial business on “Black Monday” in 1987. The Dow Jones average lost 22% of its value in one day. It took people the weekend to digest the news from the week before.

Bad news kept coming in but people were slow to process it.

Like they have been in 2008.

As the first days of the economic crisis broke, I was stunned at how the average person was disconnected. The local news devoted its airtime to bank robberies and car crashes. People on the street wanted to talk about football or the weather. The problems of Wall Street had not made their way to Main Street.

Then came President Bush and Secretary Paulson’s first effort to sail a $700 billion Wall Street bailout through Congress. As the bill was debated, defeated, revised, laden with goodies and finally adopted, anger and pessimism spilled into the streets. Suddenly Wall Street was the only topic that people wanted to talk about.

The markets have dropped further and each day, and Americans have gotten more anxious.

Now they have an entire weekend to process the news. Negative thinking will turn to panicked selling.

Expect a very “manic Monday”. It would not surprise me if Monday broke records for market declines.

It also would not surprise me if Monday was the day of a great turnaround.

The market needs to hit a bottom so it can rebound.

I’m hoping that a “manic Monday” will get stocks to prices where people start buying again.

I have been deluged by calls and emails, many from people I don’t know.

Most want reassurance or guidance. But many are sitting on the sidelines, itching to buy.

They look at companies like Ford, GM or Apple (none of which I have ever owned) and wonder if there will some be bargains.

I don’t know. But it is a good time to do some research and find out.

If you have done your homework and know your investment, you know when it is at a good price or a bad price.

I’m in the structured settlement business, so my knowledge is focused on annuities and insurance companies. Although I did it earlier in my life, I have not sold stock or mutual funds in a decade. I only track stocks that I own.

People can do well when they take their time to do research. In the era of the Internet, there is a ton of information about anything you might be interested in owning.

After careful research, you may see opportunities that the panicked and pessimistic are missing. You might go in slowly (as I recommend) or go “all in”, like professional poker players do.

Investing is like playing poker. Winners and losers are decided by understanding the psychology of the people involved.

The current psychology ranges from negative to mindless panic. If you are positive and calm, you might be a big winner.

I always start my columns with a song and I was torn between Manic Monday and Rainy Days Always Get Me Down by the Carpenters.

A way to keep this Monday from getting you down is to rationally plot out your financial future Then do the research to understand your investments.

Don’t count on Wall Street to do your research for you. Its track record is pretty weak.

If you have a plan, keep your wits and don’t buy into panic, the expected downturn on “Manic Monday” might be a good day for you.

Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of A Gambler: Winners, Losers and What to Do When You Win the Lottery. You can write to him at don@mcnay.com or read other things he has written at www.donmcnay.com McNay is the founder of McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Ky.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Machiavelli and the Economic Crisis (second draft of column)

Machiavelli and the Economic Crisis

Come on baby, don’t fear the reaper.

-Blue Oyster Cult

I wish one of our economic leaders had been a political science major.

George Bush has an MBA from Harvard. Henry Paulson has an MBA from Harvard. Ben Bernanke graduated from Harvard before he became a Princeton professor.

The crisis is not boding well for the Ivy League.

I used to wish the economic leaders had gone to state schools and owned a corner grocery store. I felt they were out of touch with average Americans.

The problem is simpler than that. None of them understand political philosophy or crowd psychology.

Every aspiring political science student has read, The Prince by Machiavelli. One lesson from the book has stuck with me.

Always give bad news in one dose.

The worst thing a leader can do is dribble out bad news a little at a time. Like the crew in Washington is doing now.

When the $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan was proposed, someone called into a radio talk show and asked me what would happen to the Dow Jones average if the bill did not pass.

I said it would drop 50% in one day. Then we would start over again

If the Washington crew had read Machiavelli, maybe it would have happened that way. .

Instead, Congress passed the bailout bill. The markets continue to decline day by day.

Now people are really scared. I can’t blame them. Each day, there is bad news followed by bad news. No one knows when it will stop.

People need certainty. Even if the news is terrible. It is easier to come back from one big disaster than a series of little ones.

We spent $700 billion and it didn’t give us certainty. I’m not really sure what it gave us.

I’d love to have the money back.

I wish Bush, Paulson and Bernanke had spent less time reading about market theory and more time on philosophy and psychology.

We are past the point where market theory has anything to do with the economic crisis. Decisions are driven by fear and human behaviors.

The kind of behaviors that Machiavelli figured out 500 years ago.

I wish more of our business leaders understood history and philosophy. Too few do.

When you see the current economic crisis, you need to look at world history to get some answers.

Once you do that, you come to the same conclusion as Harry Truman, “the only thing new in the world is the history you don’t know.”

This is not the first, or the last, economic crisis that the world will face. There have been worse. No one is starving or rioting. At least not yet.

We need to draw upon the knowledge of the ages

Machiavelli gave us the first answer. Let bad news happen in one swoop.

The gang in Washington screwed that up. So now what do we do?

Listen to Machiavelli again. Stop trying the “fix of the day.” Let some companies that are “too big to fail,” go ahead and fail.

Get the garbage out of the system at once rather than let things keep sliding.

The government should completely protect savers, home owners and insurance policyholders. No one else.

Wall Street CEO’s, with their million dollar bonuses, would be out of luck.

People were horrified when I first suggested that we let things bottom out. People said, “the Dow Jones will drop 5000 points in a day.”

I would have rather have had it drop 5000 in a day than 5000, in gradual steps, like it did.

Once the markets hit bottom, smart investors, like the Warren Buffett’s of the world, will come back and start buying. We will be back on the way up.


If we had done it my way, we would have still had $700 billion in the till when that happened.

Not learning the lesson of Machiavelli has been a root cause of the crisis. Politicians never want to give bad news.

People can handle bad news. Especially when it comes at one time.

I learned early in my business career that people want you to lead with the worst news first.

If I have to fire someone, I always start the conversation with that fact. I don’t dribble it out over an hour.

I’ve remained friends with most of the people I have fired. Once the shock wore off, the former employees appreciated my candor.

History tells us that we can survive any kind of disaster. The key is to get the disaster completely on the table so we can deal with it.

Which is the lesson Machiavelli taught us 500 years ago.

Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond Kentucky. You can read his award winning, syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com or write to him at don@donmcnay.com. McNay is Treasurer of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.

Draft fo Machiavelli & The Economic Crisis. Column for Friday

Machiavelli and the Economic Crisis

Come on baby, don’t fear the reaper.

-Blue Oyster Cult

I wish one of our economic leaders had been a political science major.

George Bush has an MBA from Harvard. Henry Paulson has an MBA from Harvard. Ben Bernanke graduated from Harvard before became he became a Princeton professor.

The crisis is not boding well for the Ivy League.

I used to wish the economic leaders had gone to state schools and owned a corner grocery store. I felt they were out of touch with average Americans.

The problem is simpler than that. None of them understand political philosophy or crowd psychology.

Every aspiring political science student has read, The Prince by Machiavelli. One lesson from the book has stuck with me.

Always give bad news in one doze.

The worst thing a leader can do is dribble out bad news, a little at a time. Like the crew in Washington is doing now..

When the $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan was proposed, someone called into a radio talk show and asked me what would happen to the Dow Jones average if the bill did not pass.

I said it would drop 50% in one day. Then we would start over again

If the Washington crew had read Machiavelli, maybe it would have happened that way. .

Instead, Congress passed the bailout bill. The markets continue to decline day by day.

Now people are really scared. I really can’t blame them. Each day, there is bad news followed by bad news. No one knows when it will stop.

People need certainty. Even if the news is terrible. It is easier to come back from one big disaster than a series of little ones.

We spent $700 billion and it didn’t give us certainty. I’m not really sure what it gave us.

I’d love to have the money back.

I wish Bush, Paulson and Bernanke had spent less time reading about market theory and more time on philosophy and psychology.

We are past the point where market theory has anything to do with the economic crisis. Decisions are driven by fear and human behaviors.

The kind of behaviors that Machiavelli figured out 500 years ago.

I wish more of our business leaders understood history and philosophy. Too few do.

When you see the current economic crisis, you need to look at world history to get some answers.

Once you do that, you come to the same conclusion as Harry Truman, “the only thing new in the world is the history you don’t know.”

This is not the first, or the last, economic crisis that the world has ever faced. There have been worse. No one is starving or rioting. At least not yet.

We need to draw upon the knowledge of the ages

Machiavelli gave us the first answer. Let bad news happen in one swoop.

The gang in Washington screwed that up. So now what do we do?

Listen to Machiavelli again. Stop trying the “fix of the day.” Let some companies that are “too big to fail,” go ahead and fail.

Get the garbage out of the system at once rather than let things keep sliding.

The government should completely protect savers, home owners and insurance policyholders. No one else.

Wall Street CEO’s, with their million dollar bonuses, would be out of luck.

People were horrified when I first suggested that we let things bottom out. People said, “the Dow Jones will drop 5000 points in a day.”

I would have rather have had it drop 5000 in a day than 5000, in gradual steps, like it did.

Once the markets hits a bottom, smart investors, like the Warren Buffett’s of the world, will come back and start buying. We will be back on the way up.


If we had done it my way, we would have still had $700 billion in the till when that happened.

Not learning the lesson of Machiavelli has been a root cause of the crisis. Politicians never want to give bad news.

People can handle bad news. Especially when it comes at one time.

I learned early in my business career that people want you to lead with the worst news first.

If I have to fire someone, I always start the conversation with that fact. I don’t dribble it out over an hour.

I’ve remained friends with most of the people I have fired. Once the shock wore off, the former employees appreciated my candor.

History tells us that we can survive any kind of disaster. The key is to get the disaster completely on the table so we can deal with it.

Which is the lesson Machiavelli taught us 500 years ago.

Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond Kentucky. You can read his award winning, syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com or write to him at don@donmcnay.com. McNay is Treasurer of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Don McNay on WLVK with Kruser at 1.05 pm October 8, 2008

Author and syndicated financial columnist Don McNay will be on WLVK-AM (590 AM) with Kruser at 1.05 p.m, Wednesday October 8, 2008 at 1.05 pm to discuss the financial crisis.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Reasons to Remain Calm

Reasons to Remain Calm

“You know you make me want to shout”

-Otis Day and the Knights

I am starting to feel like Kevin Bacon's character in the movie Animal House. In the last scene of the movie, Bacon keeps yelling, “remain calm.”

Instead, the crowd tramples him into the ground.

I was opposed to the Wall Street bailout plan, but it happened anyway.

I've been telling people to spend less than they make, diversify their investments, and to avoid risk. Some took my advice, others didn’t.

If Wall Street had followed the rules, the crisis would not have happened

Many bailout supporters were expecting an immediate cure. Even if it works, the bailout will take a long period of time. Someone should have explained that to the American people.

No one did. When the worldwide crisis continued, people were spooked.

It is time to remain calm.

Go back to my simple rules. If you are spending less than you make, diversified your investments and avoided risk, you are going to be ok.

Don’t get caught up in the panic.

I know you want to do something. We all do. We have this feeling of total helplessness, like watching a loved one die of cancer. The game is being played on a larger stage.

Remaining calm is the only true solution.

I’ve watched the President and Secretary of the Treasury panic last week. That didn’t make me feel good but I stayed calm anyway.

This is a time when we need to rise above our leadership. The quicker we all settle down, the quicker we can start working towards solutions.

The worst decisions are those made hastily and under stress. Financial decisions have to be separated from emotional reactions.

If you have money in a 401(k) plan, it's probably gone down in the last month. It may go down in the next month. It may go up.

If I knew the exact answer, I would be a multi billionaire. Not having all my eggs in one basket gives me a chance to be right either way.

Some segments of the market do extremely well in times of panic. Others do worse. The key is to have your money in everything.

I didn’t think the $700 billion would help everyone. Some segments of the economy have been hammered, some not at all.

If you work in healthcare, government, or a business not dependent on the financial markets, you may in good shape. The odds of the losing your job is possible, but remote.

No matter how bad the economy gets, we are still going to be hiring nurses, firefighters and dentists.

If you're retired and get a fixed, defined-benefit pension check, your money should be safe.

If your own your house completely, and not planning on selling it right away, you don’t have a problem.. If you have a fixed mortgage, and you're making payments on time, you shouldn't have a problem either.

There is another extreme of the economy . People who are maxed out on their credit cards, and behind on their sub prime mortgages. The economic crisis, may not hurt them as badly as the status quo.

Those people were already in trouble. There is now going to be huge political pressure to make banks and mortgage companies work out compromises.

There are a number of sectors really hurting. I happen to be affiliated with two industries, financial services and media, having a difficult time.

When it's all over, those fields are going to have a couple big players and a lot of tiny ones. The mid level companies won’t survive.

The crisis is a good time to gauge if you're going to be one of the survivors. If not, its time to look at alternatives.

Changing careers is a life changing event. Its not a decision that you should make during times of panic.

This is the fourth time in my professional life where I’ve seen an economic boom and bust.

I saw it happen in the stock market crash of 1987. I saw it happen when technology stocks crashed in 1999. Worst was when “the world stopping turning” on September 11, 2001. Along with the human loss, it damaged the economy. Some industries, like airlines, have never come back.

Each time, I watched people buy high and sell low. They would get caught up making irrational economic decisions and then sell in the middle of a panic.

I would see people make bad, life altering decisions because they didn’t think them through carefully.


Kevin Bacon may have gotten trampled, but he had the right idea. Right now is the time when people should be heeding the advice to stay calm.

Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com