THIS IS MY COLUMN THAT WILL RUN ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 21
Economic Upheaval Predicts an Obama Victory
By Don McNay
Richmond Register
Then you better start swimming
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin
-Bob Dylan
Until last week, I thought John McCain had a chance to be President. I don’t now.
I’ve been watching political futures trading on www.intrade.com. I could see a situation where McCain could unite the coalition of states that George Bush carried in 2000 and 2004.
Then the financial markets went on another wild ride. The latest drama was the tipping point. People will want striking change.
There are two ways that crisis effects presidential politics. In times of war, voters stay with the incumbent party. In times of economic upheaval, people elect challengers.
Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt won war time re-elections. Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter were thrown-out during hard economic times. George H.W. Bush went out in an economy less painful than now.
McCain is not responsible for the nation’s economic woes. He’s a member of the current president’s party and has been in Washington for a long time.
Normally, experience and incumbency are assets. Not this year. Every time the markets get out of whack, people start looking for someone to make them calm again.
The people in charge are not getting the job done. It’s time to try someone new.
After the latest financial tsunami, the economy will be the only issue. War, social issues and “lipstick on a pig” are going to be distant side shows.
It will take a few weeks for the effect to ripple down to Main Street. Like a near death collision, shock sets in the days after the accident.
The tremors are going to hit Main Street about the time Election Day rolls around. That is very bad for McCain.
People are paying more for gasoline than they ever dreamed they would. Food is more expensive, people are losing their houses and jobs are lost and outsourced.
Financial institutions that were supposed to give us guidance have given us garbage. Some historic giants have been destroyed by greed, hubris and big time arrogance.
What is going on can’t keep going. People are dying for change. Until the markets went crazy, I thought McCain might symbolize enough change to make people happy. I don’t think so now.
When Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter, he asked the question: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
Obama can ask voters: are you better off today than you were four MONTHS ago?
Even four weeks ago look sunnier than now.
Although I always planned to vote for him, (I’ve only voted for one Republican presidential candidate in my life) I’ve been slow to warm up to Obama. I was for John Edwards, before I found out Edwards was a reckless liar. Edwards’s social agenda, with a touch of Mike Huckabee’s economic populism, was the candidate I was looking for.
The upheaval has increased my Obama enthusiasm.
There have been a lot of bad economic decisions. The War in Iraq diverted billions that we needed at home. Lobbyists pushed through legislation that hurts consumers. Warren Buffett, the richest man in America, thinks he should pay more in taxes and estate taxes than his personal secretary pays. He’s right.
President Bush appointed a Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who doesn’t have the slightest idea what he is doing. Bernanke has turned a bad economy into a terrible one.
Government regulation of financial institutions is a joke. They only time regulators step up is to throw money at companies that are “too big to fail.” They should learn to stop disasters before they start.
Billions are wasted, bailing out companies who made stupid decisions. CEO’s are rewarded for their screw ups with million dollar bonuses.
If I make bad business decisions, I go to the poor house. If a Wall Street hot shot loses billions, we buy them a yacht on the way out.
I’d love for the government to throw me a few billion. Unlike the Wall Street types, my company has never failed.
Large companies, with long histories, have been brought to their knees by stupid decisions. I am not sure why it happened, but it happened.
The country will vote for the candidate that keeps it from happening again.
Which means the times will be a changing.
Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Gambler's Guide to Presidential Elections
Gambler’s Guide to Presidential Elections.
“I got it. I got it. I got your number on the wall.”
-Tommy Tutone
2008 is a turning point in my life. I quit watching pundits and rarely look at political polls. I have the answers, long before political “experts” do.
I track who is betting on political races.
A futures trading website called www.intrade.com allows you to “buy” futures contracts on the outcome of the presidential race.
There is supposedly a difference between betting and buying futures contracts. I have no idea what it is. It looks like gambling to me.
I grew up around bookmakers and the people at www.intrade.com figured out how to make it legal.
I’ve followed www.intrade.com for the past year and found it to be amazingly accurate. Look at it and see.
By going to www.intrade.com you eliminate the television blowhards and avoid polls like the one that picked Obama to win the New Hampshire primary.
I have not sent www.intrade.com any money. I have no idea who is behind it or where they are. I don’t like to bet but want to know how other people are betting.
The political futures market is a great example of an economic theory called “the wisdom of crowds.” Following money movement is a great way to predict outcomes.
When many people put their money up, sentiment and emotion are minimized as factors.
The www.intrade.com numbers are an interesting mix. The bettors favor Brack Obama to win over John McCain, but if you look at the betting on a state by state basis, McCain has a slight lead in the electoral votes.
Al Gore will tell you that winning the popular vote doesn’t mean anything unless you get the electoral votes.
Looking at the state by state breakout, I’m stunned at how many states has already been “decided” one way or another.
If the odds are 90% in one candidate’s favor, 60 days out, they are normally going to win an individual state.
Barring something extremely weird, a vetted candidate is not going to screw it up.
According to the trading, most of us are sitting the 2008 election out. If you are an Obama supporter in Kentucky, the odds are 98% to 5% (there is a margin of error) against your candidate. If you are a McCain supporter in Maryland, you are also out of luck. Obama has 93% there.
Most of the states that were for Bush in 2004 have a 90% or better rating for McCain. The Kerry states are generally going for Obama.
Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado are where the battle will be fought. Virginia, Nevada and Ohio have small leads for McCain and the other two slightly favor Obama.
All five states went for Bush against Gore and all but New Hampshire went for Bush against Kerry. If Obama is going to win, he needs to get all the states that Gore won in 2000 and add one.
Any one will do.
The good news is that we won’t care about Florida. The betting favors McCain by about 65%.
Every now and then, I fall into the trap of political gossip and I wonder where some people get their information. I read that some Democrats were worried about California. 93% of the bettors disagree with that concern.
I thought that Obama would have a hard time winning Pennsylvania because he struggled against Hillary Clinton. 74% of the futures traders think otherwise. Just last week, I argued that Pennsylvania was in play. The futures traders have smacked down that notion.
A prediction does not mean that results are locked in stone. Someone can screw up or have a scandal break.
I doubt that McCain or Obama have a girlfriend (or boyfriend) on the side. On the other hand, I never dreamed that John Edwards had a mistress.
If Edwards had still been a viable candidate, his bettors would have lost big time.
For every person that wins a bet, there is another person that loses. Just like an election.
With tools like www.intrade.com, we have a better idea as to will be victorious.
As the late Mayor Daley of Chicago would say, “don’t make no waves, don’t back no losers.”
Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers & What to Do When You Win the Lottery. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read what he has written at www.donmcnay.com
“I got it. I got it. I got your number on the wall.”
-Tommy Tutone
2008 is a turning point in my life. I quit watching pundits and rarely look at political polls. I have the answers, long before political “experts” do.
I track who is betting on political races.
A futures trading website called www.intrade.com allows you to “buy” futures contracts on the outcome of the presidential race.
There is supposedly a difference between betting and buying futures contracts. I have no idea what it is. It looks like gambling to me.
I grew up around bookmakers and the people at www.intrade.com figured out how to make it legal.
I’ve followed www.intrade.com for the past year and found it to be amazingly accurate. Look at it and see.
By going to www.intrade.com you eliminate the television blowhards and avoid polls like the one that picked Obama to win the New Hampshire primary.
I have not sent www.intrade.com any money. I have no idea who is behind it or where they are. I don’t like to bet but want to know how other people are betting.
The political futures market is a great example of an economic theory called “the wisdom of crowds.” Following money movement is a great way to predict outcomes.
When many people put their money up, sentiment and emotion are minimized as factors.
The www.intrade.com numbers are an interesting mix. The bettors favor Brack Obama to win over John McCain, but if you look at the betting on a state by state basis, McCain has a slight lead in the electoral votes.
Al Gore will tell you that winning the popular vote doesn’t mean anything unless you get the electoral votes.
Looking at the state by state breakout, I’m stunned at how many states has already been “decided” one way or another.
If the odds are 90% in one candidate’s favor, 60 days out, they are normally going to win an individual state.
Barring something extremely weird, a vetted candidate is not going to screw it up.
According to the trading, most of us are sitting the 2008 election out. If you are an Obama supporter in Kentucky, the odds are 98% to 5% (there is a margin of error) against your candidate. If you are a McCain supporter in Maryland, you are also out of luck. Obama has 93% there.
Most of the states that were for Bush in 2004 have a 90% or better rating for McCain. The Kerry states are generally going for Obama.
Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado are where the battle will be fought. Virginia, Nevada and Ohio have small leads for McCain and the other two slightly favor Obama.
All five states went for Bush against Gore and all but New Hampshire went for Bush against Kerry. If Obama is going to win, he needs to get all the states that Gore won in 2000 and add one.
Any one will do.
The good news is that we won’t care about Florida. The betting favors McCain by about 65%.
Every now and then, I fall into the trap of political gossip and I wonder where some people get their information. I read that some Democrats were worried about California. 93% of the bettors disagree with that concern.
I thought that Obama would have a hard time winning Pennsylvania because he struggled against Hillary Clinton. 74% of the futures traders think otherwise. Just last week, I argued that Pennsylvania was in play. The futures traders have smacked down that notion.
A prediction does not mean that results are locked in stone. Someone can screw up or have a scandal break.
I doubt that McCain or Obama have a girlfriend (or boyfriend) on the side. On the other hand, I never dreamed that John Edwards had a mistress.
If Edwards had still been a viable candidate, his bettors would have lost big time.
For every person that wins a bet, there is another person that loses. Just like an election.
With tools like www.intrade.com, we have a better idea as to will be victorious.
As the late Mayor Daley of Chicago would say, “don’t make no waves, don’t back no losers.”
Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers & What to Do When You Win the Lottery. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read what he has written at www.donmcnay.com
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Stopping the Economic Bloodsuckers
Stopping The Economic Bloodsuckers
Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
-Coven (theme from the movie Billy Jack)
Last week, I received a direct mail piece telling me how I could make “big dollars” screwing over my neighbors. The writers want to show me how to “take advantage” of hard economic times.
Apparently, there are “great opportunities” sticking it to people who are hurting. The more they hurt, the more you can stick it to them.
Business must be great right now.
The writers said those down on their luck were “business prospects.” For a fee, the authors can show me how to push them further down the economic ladder and make a few bucks myself.
I think I’ll pass.
My temptation is to re-print the letter. I won’t. How do I separate the authors from an economy filled with payday lenders, companies that buy structured settlements and a host of other “great opportunities” for people to stick it to their neighbors?
The letter is a symptom of a larger economic problem. We have made economic exploitation fashionable and profitable.
There may have been a time when companies and people worried about their reputations. That time is long gone.
Many huge, supposedly respectable, companies back payday lenders, offer high interest credit cards and hire abusive collectors.
Read the back pages of the Wall Street Journal and you will see big name companies getting rapped on the knuckles for doing stuff they know is wrong. They do it anyway.
I never see a company’s stock price fall after those disclosures. There is no shame in getting caught.
I don’t know how to change the nation’s culture to rise up against exploitation. It would require a change in attitude and focus.
I am not crying out for more government regulation. We have a ton of “consumer protection” agencies supposedly in place. I can’t figure-out what some of them do. We have set up a system of toothless watchdogs.
Adding more bureaucrats won’t solve problems. I’m not that impressed by the current crew.
The most worthless is the Federal Trade Commission. It sounds like an impressive place, with an impressive title, that is supposed to enforce laws against collectors and credit card companies.
Drop the Federal Trade Commission a letter sometime. See what happens. You will get a form letter back saying that they are going to look at the problem. They won’t.
I guess the FTC doesn’t think there are any abusive collectors out there.
Listen to Dave Ramsey’s radio show. You will hear caller after caller tell horror stories about abusive collectors. Many collectors don’t bother to follow the law. They know they will never get caught.
I never hear Dave telling callers to write the FTC. He knows it is a waste of time.
Thus, collections have become a great “business opportunity”. The harder times get, the more opportunities there are.
I want to create another “business opportunity”. A bounty system against exploiters.
You don’t see a lot of poor people suing exploiters. First of all, the people being exploited are poor. Groceries and gas money get in front of legal fees.
The laws are written to favor the exploiters. If you take an abusive collector or credit card company to court, you don’t get much in return.
Few lawyers take the creditor cases and few people bother to protect their rights. It is as futile as writing the FTC.
If a person got an automatic $100,000 every time they could prove a collector violated the law, you would have lots of whistle blowers interested in turning them in.
When they are losing $100,000 a pop, the wrong-doer population would reform or be quickly gone.
My solution wouldn’t require any new government agencies or tax dollars. Just tweak the laws and allow the legal system to take advantage of the “big opportunity.”
If a person is intent on cheating their neighbors, they would find their neighbor had a “big dollar, business opportunity” in getting them to do the right thing,
It would be alternative way to take advantage of hard times.
Don McNay is Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com McNay is Treasurer of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.
Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
-Coven (theme from the movie Billy Jack)
Last week, I received a direct mail piece telling me how I could make “big dollars” screwing over my neighbors. The writers want to show me how to “take advantage” of hard economic times.
Apparently, there are “great opportunities” sticking it to people who are hurting. The more they hurt, the more you can stick it to them.
Business must be great right now.
The writers said those down on their luck were “business prospects.” For a fee, the authors can show me how to push them further down the economic ladder and make a few bucks myself.
I think I’ll pass.
My temptation is to re-print the letter. I won’t. How do I separate the authors from an economy filled with payday lenders, companies that buy structured settlements and a host of other “great opportunities” for people to stick it to their neighbors?
The letter is a symptom of a larger economic problem. We have made economic exploitation fashionable and profitable.
There may have been a time when companies and people worried about their reputations. That time is long gone.
Many huge, supposedly respectable, companies back payday lenders, offer high interest credit cards and hire abusive collectors.
Read the back pages of the Wall Street Journal and you will see big name companies getting rapped on the knuckles for doing stuff they know is wrong. They do it anyway.
I never see a company’s stock price fall after those disclosures. There is no shame in getting caught.
I don’t know how to change the nation’s culture to rise up against exploitation. It would require a change in attitude and focus.
I am not crying out for more government regulation. We have a ton of “consumer protection” agencies supposedly in place. I can’t figure-out what some of them do. We have set up a system of toothless watchdogs.
Adding more bureaucrats won’t solve problems. I’m not that impressed by the current crew.
The most worthless is the Federal Trade Commission. It sounds like an impressive place, with an impressive title, that is supposed to enforce laws against collectors and credit card companies.
Drop the Federal Trade Commission a letter sometime. See what happens. You will get a form letter back saying that they are going to look at the problem. They won’t.
I guess the FTC doesn’t think there are any abusive collectors out there.
Listen to Dave Ramsey’s radio show. You will hear caller after caller tell horror stories about abusive collectors. Many collectors don’t bother to follow the law. They know they will never get caught.
I never hear Dave telling callers to write the FTC. He knows it is a waste of time.
Thus, collections have become a great “business opportunity”. The harder times get, the more opportunities there are.
I want to create another “business opportunity”. A bounty system against exploiters.
You don’t see a lot of poor people suing exploiters. First of all, the people being exploited are poor. Groceries and gas money get in front of legal fees.
The laws are written to favor the exploiters. If you take an abusive collector or credit card company to court, you don’t get much in return.
Few lawyers take the creditor cases and few people bother to protect their rights. It is as futile as writing the FTC.
If a person got an automatic $100,000 every time they could prove a collector violated the law, you would have lots of whistle blowers interested in turning them in.
When they are losing $100,000 a pop, the wrong-doer population would reform or be quickly gone.
My solution wouldn’t require any new government agencies or tax dollars. Just tweak the laws and allow the legal system to take advantage of the “big opportunity.”
If a person is intent on cheating their neighbors, they would find their neighbor had a “big dollar, business opportunity” in getting them to do the right thing,
It would be alternative way to take advantage of hard times.
Don McNay is Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com McNay is Treasurer of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Al Smith winning SPJ award
Tom Eblen at the Lexington Herald Leader did a terrific column this week about Al Smith. Al, along with Tim Russert and two others, will receive a huge award from the Society of Professional Journalists at their Atlanta convention this week.
I planned to be there before I banged up my knee. I am better now. I went to Dr. Phil Hoffman yesterday, who is best known as the father of "Babydaddy" in the Scissor Sisters. Dr. Phil had me jump around the office for a few minutes. He could have been auditioning me as a dancer for the group. Never know. I feel pretty good but it is too late to reschedule my trip.
I had dinner with Al & Martha Helen last week. They also invited Elizabeth Page, and her parents. Elizabeth is a fascinating MIT student from Lexington who I plan to feature in a future column. Elizabeth gives me hope for the future of America and the kind of talented student that Kentucky schools can produce.
Tom Eblen Column about Al Smith
Don McNay Column: Al Smith & War Against Addiction
I planned to be there before I banged up my knee. I am better now. I went to Dr. Phil Hoffman yesterday, who is best known as the father of "Babydaddy" in the Scissor Sisters. Dr. Phil had me jump around the office for a few minutes. He could have been auditioning me as a dancer for the group. Never know. I feel pretty good but it is too late to reschedule my trip.
I had dinner with Al & Martha Helen last week. They also invited Elizabeth Page, and her parents. Elizabeth is a fascinating MIT student from Lexington who I plan to feature in a future column. Elizabeth gives me hope for the future of America and the kind of talented student that Kentucky schools can produce.
Tom Eblen Column about Al Smith
Don McNay Column: Al Smith & War Against Addiction
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Business Books To Learn From
Business Books To Learn From
And feed them on your dreams
The one they pick
The one you'll know by.
-Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young
Charles Martin, entrepreneur and owner of Apollo’s Pizza in Richmond, has been quizzing me in his search for books about business and investments.
He made me aware that the average person doesn’t have a “ business reading list” they can get their hands on.
Many bookstores gear the business section to books promising quick riches or books by celebrities. You see a lot of easy money schemes sitting next to by Donald Trump.
If you ask 1000 business leaders about books that influenced their lives, none ever mention Donald Trump.
For my next column, I’m going to ask some great business leaders about the books that influence and inspire them.
This week, you're going to have to rely on me.
Top on my list is The Millionaire Next Door by Dr. Thomas Stanley. It’s easy to read and gives common sense advice. All of Stanley’s books, especially his early academic work, are good picks. Millionaire is an excellent read for small business owners like Charles.
Stanley’s research showed that people who own businesses are most likely to be millionaires.
The best way to learn is to watch somebody who’s doing it well. Since Warren Buffett is the richest man in the world, you can't go wrong by watching him.
There are over 60 books written about Buffett, with another highly anticipated biography being released later this month. I’ve read most of the Buffett biographies and the best is Buffett: Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein.
My favorite personal finance books have been around for a long time. No matter how hard people try, there's are not new things to say about personal finance.
Thousands of personal finance books come to the same conclusion: spend less than you make, follow a budget, and invest for long periods of time.
It doesn’t get more complicated than that.
Three books I like are: The Challenges of Wealth by Amy Domini, Financial Peace by Dave Ramsey and The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need by Andrew Tobias.
I like Amy because she has a lot of deep research. I like Dave because he hates credit cards and learned from the school of hard knocks. I like Andy because he is insightful and funny.
Andy once said that I was insightful and funny. I want to return the favor. He the only finance writer I know of that makes you laugh out loud.
All the books are easy to read. None give you any magic bullets or get rich quick schemes.
If you feel like you have mastered the basics, it’s time to move up to Benjamin Graham. Dr. Graham is the academic who influenced on Warren Buffett and countless other investors.
Graham’ stuff is complex, but well worth the time. The classic Graham book is Security Analysis, and his best known book is The Intelligent Investor.
Another oldie but goodie is A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I would also grudgingly admit that Peter Lynch’s One Up On Wall Street has value.
I’ve written at 20 columns bashing Lynch but he wrote his book before his company started peddling crummy mutual funds to soldiers fighting in Iraq.
One of the reasons I remain mad at Lynch is that, from his book, I knew he knew better.
In business, like anything else, people need to know about history. I reviewed Joe Nocera’s, A Piece of the Action for the Lexington Herald in 1994 and said it was one of the greatest business books ever written. Nothing has caused me to change my mind.
A Piece of Action gives Joe’s perspective on the history of personal finance in America on how it enabled the average consumer.
People often fall off their investment plans or have their businesses fail because they don’t have a long term vision or goal.
The classic book on vision is The Magic of Thinking Big by Dr. David Schwartz. I re-read it every year.
I also like Mastering the Game, an obscure book by Dr. Kerry Johnson. Lately, I’ve been reading The Four Hour Work Week by Timothy Ferriss. I expected to hate the book but it has some great insights into using technology and outsourcing to balance life.
Don McNay is Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond. You can read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com or write to him at don@donmcnay.com
And feed them on your dreams
The one they pick
The one you'll know by.
-Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young
Charles Martin, entrepreneur and owner of Apollo’s Pizza in Richmond, has been quizzing me in his search for books about business and investments.
He made me aware that the average person doesn’t have a “ business reading list” they can get their hands on.
Many bookstores gear the business section to books promising quick riches or books by celebrities. You see a lot of easy money schemes sitting next to by Donald Trump.
If you ask 1000 business leaders about books that influenced their lives, none ever mention Donald Trump.
For my next column, I’m going to ask some great business leaders about the books that influence and inspire them.
This week, you're going to have to rely on me.
Top on my list is The Millionaire Next Door by Dr. Thomas Stanley. It’s easy to read and gives common sense advice. All of Stanley’s books, especially his early academic work, are good picks. Millionaire is an excellent read for small business owners like Charles.
Stanley’s research showed that people who own businesses are most likely to be millionaires.
The best way to learn is to watch somebody who’s doing it well. Since Warren Buffett is the richest man in the world, you can't go wrong by watching him.
There are over 60 books written about Buffett, with another highly anticipated biography being released later this month. I’ve read most of the Buffett biographies and the best is Buffett: Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein.
My favorite personal finance books have been around for a long time. No matter how hard people try, there's are not new things to say about personal finance.
Thousands of personal finance books come to the same conclusion: spend less than you make, follow a budget, and invest for long periods of time.
It doesn’t get more complicated than that.
Three books I like are: The Challenges of Wealth by Amy Domini, Financial Peace by Dave Ramsey and The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need by Andrew Tobias.
I like Amy because she has a lot of deep research. I like Dave because he hates credit cards and learned from the school of hard knocks. I like Andy because he is insightful and funny.
Andy once said that I was insightful and funny. I want to return the favor. He the only finance writer I know of that makes you laugh out loud.
All the books are easy to read. None give you any magic bullets or get rich quick schemes.
If you feel like you have mastered the basics, it’s time to move up to Benjamin Graham. Dr. Graham is the academic who influenced on Warren Buffett and countless other investors.
Graham’ stuff is complex, but well worth the time. The classic Graham book is Security Analysis, and his best known book is The Intelligent Investor.
Another oldie but goodie is A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I would also grudgingly admit that Peter Lynch’s One Up On Wall Street has value.
I’ve written at 20 columns bashing Lynch but he wrote his book before his company started peddling crummy mutual funds to soldiers fighting in Iraq.
One of the reasons I remain mad at Lynch is that, from his book, I knew he knew better.
In business, like anything else, people need to know about history. I reviewed Joe Nocera’s, A Piece of the Action for the Lexington Herald in 1994 and said it was one of the greatest business books ever written. Nothing has caused me to change my mind.
A Piece of Action gives Joe’s perspective on the history of personal finance in America on how it enabled the average consumer.
People often fall off their investment plans or have their businesses fail because they don’t have a long term vision or goal.
The classic book on vision is The Magic of Thinking Big by Dr. David Schwartz. I re-read it every year.
I also like Mastering the Game, an obscure book by Dr. Kerry Johnson. Lately, I’ve been reading The Four Hour Work Week by Timothy Ferriss. I expected to hate the book but it has some great insights into using technology and outsourcing to balance life.
Don McNay is Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond. You can read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com or write to him at don@donmcnay.com
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Josh Hamilton and the Adult Baby Sitter
Josh Hamilton and the Adult Baby-Sitter.
I need you, by me, beside me, to guide me,
To hold me, to scold me, because when I’m bad
I’m so, so bad
-Donna Summer
Sports Illustrated recently did a cover story about Josh Hamilton and his comeback from addiction.
Josh has gone to the depths of hell, but found his way back. Redemption was a combination of Jesus, his wife, 12 step, and his coach, Johnny Narron, who serves as Josh’s, adult baby-sitter.
Narron is with Hamilton nearly 24 hours a day. He handles all Josh’s money, including petty cash. He eats with Josh, prays with him, guards his hotel room and acts as a shield between Hamilton and temptation.
It’s worked. Hamilton is now one of the greatest players in baseball.
A professional athlete has the means and motivation to have an adult baby-sitter. I'm wondering how many average Americans need the same service.
Earlier this summer, I had breakfast with Joe Nocera, the award-winning columnist for the New York Times. In his 1994 classic business book, A Piece of the Action, Nocera chronicles the history of personal finance in America. He concluded the moves gave Americans the chance to have their own “piece of the action” controlling their financial destines.
It stunned me when Joe said that Americans were doing a poor job of handing their newfound freedom.
I realized he was right.
Americans were better-off when they had a defined-benefit, fixed pension, instead of a 401k, where they are subject to fluctuating markets and their own investment decisions.
Americans were better-off, when they didn't have access to high interest credit cards and payday lenders. Americans were better-off with a conventional mortgage and 20% down payment, instead of a nothing down, subprime loan.
We've had increasing amounts of freedom and haven’t done a good job of handling it.
For the past 26 years, my job has been to act as a financial baby-sitter for people who receive large sums of money. My success rate is good, but it comes from understanding that people are going to fall to temptation or do something stupid. I’ve learned to place barriers between people and their money.
I tell lottery winners never to take the lump sum payment. Take the payments over time.
Judge Brandy Brown and Drug Court Program Coordinator Anna Beth Hardiman,, having been showing me the juvenile drug court in Madison and Clark Counties (Kentucky). I became interested watching the two of them on an Emmy winning A&E program called Life or Meth.
There was a captivating scene on Life or Meth when Judge Brown scolded a young man who slept through a 2 pm appointment. Her tone was similar to how a parent deals with a child.
Judge Brown developed the same solution that baseball created for Josh Hamilton: Strong supervision and fewer opportunities for temptation.
At some level, adult Americans are crying out for the kind of supervision, guidance and structure that Judge Brown brings to juveniles in her court.
You can see it happening everywhere.
One of the hottest new occupations is life coaching. People have personal trainers to help them exercise, financial advisers to handle their money and psychologists to talk about life problems.
Others adults don’t have counselors or advisors. When they can’t cope, they turn to drugs and alcohol. Just like Josh Hamilton did.
It is not practical to assign an adult baby-sitter to every hurting American. Few people have the talents of Josh Hamilton. Even fewer have an employer motivated to maximize those talents.
Whatever they are doing with Josh Hamilton, it is obviously working. I’m headed to Judge Brown’s drug court to see how that is working as well.
I’m a big advocate for individual freedom but it in areas like addiction and finance, many adults and juveniles would be better off with someone beside them, to guide them.
Because they are bad, they are so, so bad.
Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com and his award winning, syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com. McNay is Treasurer for the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.
I need you, by me, beside me, to guide me,
To hold me, to scold me, because when I’m bad
I’m so, so bad
-Donna Summer
Sports Illustrated recently did a cover story about Josh Hamilton and his comeback from addiction.
Josh has gone to the depths of hell, but found his way back. Redemption was a combination of Jesus, his wife, 12 step, and his coach, Johnny Narron, who serves as Josh’s, adult baby-sitter.
Narron is with Hamilton nearly 24 hours a day. He handles all Josh’s money, including petty cash. He eats with Josh, prays with him, guards his hotel room and acts as a shield between Hamilton and temptation.
It’s worked. Hamilton is now one of the greatest players in baseball.
A professional athlete has the means and motivation to have an adult baby-sitter. I'm wondering how many average Americans need the same service.
Earlier this summer, I had breakfast with Joe Nocera, the award-winning columnist for the New York Times. In his 1994 classic business book, A Piece of the Action, Nocera chronicles the history of personal finance in America. He concluded the moves gave Americans the chance to have their own “piece of the action” controlling their financial destines.
It stunned me when Joe said that Americans were doing a poor job of handing their newfound freedom.
I realized he was right.
Americans were better-off when they had a defined-benefit, fixed pension, instead of a 401k, where they are subject to fluctuating markets and their own investment decisions.
Americans were better-off, when they didn't have access to high interest credit cards and payday lenders. Americans were better-off with a conventional mortgage and 20% down payment, instead of a nothing down, subprime loan.
We've had increasing amounts of freedom and haven’t done a good job of handling it.
For the past 26 years, my job has been to act as a financial baby-sitter for people who receive large sums of money. My success rate is good, but it comes from understanding that people are going to fall to temptation or do something stupid. I’ve learned to place barriers between people and their money.
I tell lottery winners never to take the lump sum payment. Take the payments over time.
Judge Brandy Brown and Drug Court Program Coordinator Anna Beth Hardiman,, having been showing me the juvenile drug court in Madison and Clark Counties (Kentucky). I became interested watching the two of them on an Emmy winning A&E program called Life or Meth.
There was a captivating scene on Life or Meth when Judge Brown scolded a young man who slept through a 2 pm appointment. Her tone was similar to how a parent deals with a child.
Judge Brown developed the same solution that baseball created for Josh Hamilton: Strong supervision and fewer opportunities for temptation.
At some level, adult Americans are crying out for the kind of supervision, guidance and structure that Judge Brown brings to juveniles in her court.
You can see it happening everywhere.
One of the hottest new occupations is life coaching. People have personal trainers to help them exercise, financial advisers to handle their money and psychologists to talk about life problems.
Others adults don’t have counselors or advisors. When they can’t cope, they turn to drugs and alcohol. Just like Josh Hamilton did.
It is not practical to assign an adult baby-sitter to every hurting American. Few people have the talents of Josh Hamilton. Even fewer have an employer motivated to maximize those talents.
Whatever they are doing with Josh Hamilton, it is obviously working. I’m headed to Judge Brown’s drug court to see how that is working as well.
I’m a big advocate for individual freedom but it in areas like addiction and finance, many adults and juveniles would be better off with someone beside them, to guide them.
Because they are bad, they are so, so bad.
Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com and his award winning, syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com. McNay is Treasurer for the National Society of Newspaper Columnists.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Good Mike Leonard column about Jeff Zaslow
A columnist writes about a columnist ...
>
> HeraldTimesOnline.com
> Commentary
> ‘Last Lecture’ co-author has reason to give daughter an extra hug Mike
> Leonard 331-4368 | mleonard@heraldt.com August 21, 2008
>
>
>
> Thousands of parents will be helping their children move into
> residence halls, apartments and other living quarters in Bloomington
> over the next two weeks. Most will give their child a hug before
> heading home.
>
> That hug might have been a little more heartfelt and a little more
> emotional than most Tuesday evening when Jeffrey Zaslow said goodbye
> to his daughter, Jordan, an Indiana University sophomore. Zaslow was
> the co-author of “The Last Lecture,” the best-selling book he wrote
> with the late Carnegie Mellon professor, Randy Pausch.
>
> “Randy told me maybe two months ago — I’m addicted to Googling his
> name — he said ‘Stop Googling my name and go hug your kids.’ He was
> right, of course,” Zaslow said. “I’m still addicted to Googling his
> name, but I still think of him when I hug my kids. Now I know I’ll be
> thinking of him because you brought it up.
>
> “He didn’t get to have kids my kids’ age,” he went on. “I’m so lucky
> I’ve raised a new adult here. Randy always said he would have been a
> good father of teenagers because he’s been hanging around them so long
> as a professor.”
>
> It was Zaslow who drove from his home in Detroit to Pittsburgh last
> September to hear Pausch’s last lecture. The school has a tradition of
> featuring a last lecture by professors who are retiring. Pausch was
> stepping down because he knew he had pancreatic cancer and would die
> soon. The 46-year-old computer science professor wanted to devote his
> final months to his wife, Jai, and three small children, ages 5, 3 and
> 1.
>
> Pausch lived longer than doctors estimated, dying on July 25 at age
> 47. And neither man could have dreamed what would transpire over the
> professor’s last year.
>
> In a column for the Wall Street Journal titled, “A Beloved Professor
> Delivers The Lecture of a Lifetime,” Zaslow described the wisdom and
> good humor of the Pausch speech. “The minute we posted my column, and
> a little five-minute (video) clip, at midnight at the Journal online,
> I started getting e-mails immediately,” Zaslow said. “By morning, it
> was linked on dozens of Web sites and by noon it was on hundreds. By
> the next day, it was in the thousands. People were sending and sending
> and sending it. I knew pretty quickly that this was touching people
> more than anything I’d ever done before.”
>
> It was more than a compelling story of a brilliant young scientist and
> professor dying at a young age and leaving a wife and children behind.
> It was more than a tale of courage — who among us could get a death
> diagnosis and stand up and deliver a funny and inspiring speech
> without losing our emotions?
>
> It was clear that Pausch had a gift for absorbing life’s lessons and
> communicating them through quotes and parables that resonate with
> people. “We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the
> hand,” he said. “The brick walls are not there to keep us out; the
> brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want
> something.”
>
> Not only was Zaslow’s column e-mailed around the world at lightning
> speed; the video of Pausch’s speech, posted on YouTube, received more
> than a million viewings in just a month. The professor became a
> sensation, appearing on “The Oprah Winfrey Show” and, eventually, an
> hourlong television special hosted by Diane Sawyer.
>
> In the meantime, Pausch and Zaslow committed to writing a book to
> expand on the original lecture, which was titled “Really Achieving
> Your Childhood Dreams.” In order to savor every precious moment with
> his wife and children, Pausch talked on the phone to Zaslow when he
> took bicycle rides around his neighborhood to keep up his strength.
> “He put on a cell phone headset and we talked practically every day
> from November through January,” Zaslow said. “I spent 53 hours on the
> phone with him, taking notes. It had to be written so fast. They (the
> publishers) wanted him to be alive when the book came out, and we
> weren’t sure that was going to happen.”
>
> Since its publication April 8, “The Last Lecture” has consistently
> hovered at the top of the best-seller list. More than 3.4 million
> copies are in print, and the book has been translated into 35
> languages.
>
> Zaslow said he’s not at liberty to discuss the financial aspects of
> the book, but it has been reported that the authors received a $6.7
> million advance. Sales have far exceeded that amount and Zaslow,
> Pausch’s family and pancreatic cancer research have all been
> beneficiaries.
>
> Zaslow was already on a “book leave” from the Wall Street Journal when
> the Pausch story came his way. He was writing, and recently completed,
> a book titled “The Girls From Ames.” It’s a story about the
> extraordinary lifelong friendship shared by 11 women from Iowa.
>
> He really isn’t sure what his next move will be. But he does know that
> his own life has been forever changed by the friendship and
> inspiration imparted by the late computer science professor. His wife,
> Sherry Margolis (a Detroit television anchor) and daughters Jordan,
> 19; Alex, 16; and Eden, 13, have become more precious than ever —
> something he wouldn’t have thought possible a year ago.
>
> “People who have seen the lecture and read the book all say they
> finished it and wanted to hug their children. As I was writing it, I
> was hugging my children — except for the times I said, ‘Go away, I’m
> writing the book,’” he said with a laugh. “Of course, Randy would have
> traded all of the fame and everything for just another month with his
> kids.”
> © 1997 - 2007 Hoosiertimes Inc.
>
> HeraldTimesOnline.com
> Commentary
> ‘Last Lecture’ co-author has reason to give daughter an extra hug Mike
> Leonard 331-4368 | mleonard@heraldt.com August 21, 2008
>
>
>
> Thousands of parents will be helping their children move into
> residence halls, apartments and other living quarters in Bloomington
> over the next two weeks. Most will give their child a hug before
> heading home.
>
> That hug might have been a little more heartfelt and a little more
> emotional than most Tuesday evening when Jeffrey Zaslow said goodbye
> to his daughter, Jordan, an Indiana University sophomore. Zaslow was
> the co-author of “The Last Lecture,” the best-selling book he wrote
> with the late Carnegie Mellon professor, Randy Pausch.
>
> “Randy told me maybe two months ago — I’m addicted to Googling his
> name — he said ‘Stop Googling my name and go hug your kids.’ He was
> right, of course,” Zaslow said. “I’m still addicted to Googling his
> name, but I still think of him when I hug my kids. Now I know I’ll be
> thinking of him because you brought it up.
>
> “He didn’t get to have kids my kids’ age,” he went on. “I’m so lucky
> I’ve raised a new adult here. Randy always said he would have been a
> good father of teenagers because he’s been hanging around them so long
> as a professor.”
>
> It was Zaslow who drove from his home in Detroit to Pittsburgh last
> September to hear Pausch’s last lecture. The school has a tradition of
> featuring a last lecture by professors who are retiring. Pausch was
> stepping down because he knew he had pancreatic cancer and would die
> soon. The 46-year-old computer science professor wanted to devote his
> final months to his wife, Jai, and three small children, ages 5, 3 and
> 1.
>
> Pausch lived longer than doctors estimated, dying on July 25 at age
> 47. And neither man could have dreamed what would transpire over the
> professor’s last year.
>
> In a column for the Wall Street Journal titled, “A Beloved Professor
> Delivers The Lecture of a Lifetime,” Zaslow described the wisdom and
> good humor of the Pausch speech. “The minute we posted my column, and
> a little five-minute (video) clip, at midnight at the Journal online,
> I started getting e-mails immediately,” Zaslow said. “By morning, it
> was linked on dozens of Web sites and by noon it was on hundreds. By
> the next day, it was in the thousands. People were sending and sending
> and sending it. I knew pretty quickly that this was touching people
> more than anything I’d ever done before.”
>
> It was more than a compelling story of a brilliant young scientist and
> professor dying at a young age and leaving a wife and children behind.
> It was more than a tale of courage — who among us could get a death
> diagnosis and stand up and deliver a funny and inspiring speech
> without losing our emotions?
>
> It was clear that Pausch had a gift for absorbing life’s lessons and
> communicating them through quotes and parables that resonate with
> people. “We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the
> hand,” he said. “The brick walls are not there to keep us out; the
> brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want
> something.”
>
> Not only was Zaslow’s column e-mailed around the world at lightning
> speed; the video of Pausch’s speech, posted on YouTube, received more
> than a million viewings in just a month. The professor became a
> sensation, appearing on “The Oprah Winfrey Show” and, eventually, an
> hourlong television special hosted by Diane Sawyer.
>
> In the meantime, Pausch and Zaslow committed to writing a book to
> expand on the original lecture, which was titled “Really Achieving
> Your Childhood Dreams.” In order to savor every precious moment with
> his wife and children, Pausch talked on the phone to Zaslow when he
> took bicycle rides around his neighborhood to keep up his strength.
> “He put on a cell phone headset and we talked practically every day
> from November through January,” Zaslow said. “I spent 53 hours on the
> phone with him, taking notes. It had to be written so fast. They (the
> publishers) wanted him to be alive when the book came out, and we
> weren’t sure that was going to happen.”
>
> Since its publication April 8, “The Last Lecture” has consistently
> hovered at the top of the best-seller list. More than 3.4 million
> copies are in print, and the book has been translated into 35
> languages.
>
> Zaslow said he’s not at liberty to discuss the financial aspects of
> the book, but it has been reported that the authors received a $6.7
> million advance. Sales have far exceeded that amount and Zaslow,
> Pausch’s family and pancreatic cancer research have all been
> beneficiaries.
>
> Zaslow was already on a “book leave” from the Wall Street Journal when
> the Pausch story came his way. He was writing, and recently completed,
> a book titled “The Girls From Ames.” It’s a story about the
> extraordinary lifelong friendship shared by 11 women from Iowa.
>
> He really isn’t sure what his next move will be. But he does know that
> his own life has been forever changed by the friendship and
> inspiration imparted by the late computer science professor. His wife,
> Sherry Margolis (a Detroit television anchor) and daughters Jordan,
> 19; Alex, 16; and Eden, 13, have become more precious than ever —
> something he wouldn’t have thought possible a year ago.
>
> “People who have seen the lecture and read the book all say they
> finished it and wanted to hug their children. As I was writing it, I
> was hugging my children — except for the times I said, ‘Go away, I’m
> writing the book,’” he said with a laugh. “Of course, Randy would have
> traded all of the fame and everything for just another month with his
> kids.”
> © 1997 - 2007 Hoosiertimes Inc.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
